ArcheAge Chronicles · trade runs
A delivered trade run can look great until you price in the runs that get stolen. Enter what your packs cost, what they pay, how long the run takes and how often you lose the cargo, and see what a route really earns per hour.
Bring your own numbers. Trade runs are confirmed for Early Access, but no official pack recipes, payouts or theft rules have been published, so none are built in. The example uses made-up values and is labelled that way.
Making the packs, travel there and back.
Materials at what you could sell them for, plus fees.
What a delivered pack pays.
Stolen or destroyed. Use your own history if you have it.
Repairs, escort pay, travel costs.
Used for the 9-in-10 floor and the odds of a losing session.
How many runs and hours to earn it.
Expected profit per hour
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Enter the cost and payout per pack to start.
Saved routes, best expected profit per hour first. Load one to edit it.
No saved routes yet
Fill in a run and press Save route to compare it with others.
| Rank | Route | Expected / hour | Expected / run | Loss chance | Break-even | Actions |
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Every run costs the same whether it arrives or not: the materials in the packs, any fees, and your time. Only delivered runs pay. So the number that matters isn't the profit on a good run, it's the expected profit: what a run earns on average once the lost ones are counted.
For example, a run that costs 3,800 and pays 7,800 makes 4,000 when it arrives. With a 15% chance of losing it, the expected profit is 7,800 × 0.85 − 3,800 = 2,830 per run. That route keeps paying on average until the loss chance reaches about 51%. These numbers are made up to show the maths.
Losses come in streaks. Even when a route pays well on average, a session of ten runs can lose two, three or more. The session numbers show the profit that 9 in 10 sessions beat and the chance a whole session ends below zero. Both are exact for the inputs you give, based on the binomial distribution, with no random simulation.
A route with a slightly lower expected rate but less risk can be the better choice if a bad session would set you back, for example when the packs use materials you can't easily replace.
The Steam page lists trading with other players, trading runs and defending trade routes as part of the game, and Early Access includes trading. The details that decide profit, such as pack recipes, payouts, routes and what happens when cargo is lost, haven't been published, and the Steam Next Fest demo focused on classes, PvP and a dungeon. We'll add verified details here with sources once Early Access is out. Until then, rules from the original ArcheAge may not apply.
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Independent ArcheAge Chronicles fan tools. Not affiliated with or endorsed by XLGAMES or Kakao Games. ArcheAge and related trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Calculations run in your browser and are estimates. Your entries are saved only in this browser's local storage and are never sent to Hunter Vault. These tools don't connect to game accounts, and we don't offer real-money trading or automation.